Sustainable Energy - without the hot air

Prof MacKay's starting point is that there is a great deal of vague flummery talked about energy production and consumption. It is easy to make vague claims of "huge" potential green sources or to obsess over what turn out to be very minor energy savings. His goal in this book is to have a hard-nosed discussion of real numbers, so that there can be a more sensible discussion of options. He avoids making explicit recommendations, but his one continual plea is that we create a plan that "adds up" rather than merely reflecting wishful thinking. The world currently consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, so any viable alternative plan also has to deal with very large numbers, either as savings or as alternate sources. MacKay writes in a very readable and entertaining style. But he is also very careful to explain his numbers and to build his scenarios from the ground up. I found his analyses convincing and stimulating. Sometimes more detailed or more mathematical analysis is pushed off to supplementary appendices, but those are also well worth reading. I learned many things. One key factor I hadn't appreciated was the enormous land areas required for renewable sources, such as wind, solar, biofuel, or geothermal to make a substantial difference. For example, MacKay calculates that it would probably require 10% of the UK's surface to be dedicated to wind farms in order to make a significant contribution to the UK's current energy needs. Even larger areas are required to generate meaningful quantities of biofuel. If an area the size of Africa were dedicated to growing biofuel, that might only replace a third of current world oil needs. But MacKay also points out there may be places where building vast energy farms makes sense. For example, a 20,000 square km solar power farm in the Sahara could be one way to meet the UK's energy needs. MacKay explains how technologies such as electric cars or heat pumps reduce energy needs, independent of how the electricity is generated. He shows us that because electric motors are extremely efficient, burning oil in a central power plant and using the electricity to run an electric car actually requires much less energy than traditional cars. Similarly, he shows how using a central electric power station to power home heat pumps is a significantly more efficient way to heat houses than burning gas or oil at the house. (I had definitely not understood this before!) MacKay would prefer we use green technology to create the electric power, but it is interesting that even using fossil fuel power stations, electric cars and heat pumps still reduce overall fossil fuel consumption. In his concluding chapters, MacKay outlines several possible plans that "add up". All of them have significant negatives, either through reliance on nuclear power, or enormous environmental impact, or enormous expense. He doesn't pick a winner from among these options, but he emphasizes that we need to chose a plan rather than simply saying "no" to every possible option. Regardless of whether you agree with Prof Mackay's goal of shifting to alternative energy supplies, this book is definitely worth reading. MacKay succeeds admirably in explaining the raw numbers, so we can see what realistic energy choices are available. Having read this book (and having it available as a reference) I now feel much better equipped to read the plethora of ideas, plans, suggestions, trivia, wishful thinking and occasional good sense that circulate around energy policy. MacKay is right that numbers matter, and plans need to add up!

Easy read with lots of information about energy. A wonderful book full of facts about generation of electricity and options for how it can be done in the future. This is a great book with hard numbers, and not just a bunch of arming waving, and armchair theorizing. I cannot recommend this book too highly for anyone who wishes to understand the energy issues facing the industrial world. Mr. MacKay did a wonderful job of getting a large amount of hard data together about the UK and to a lesser extent the world, an power, in particular, electrical energy use and generation, now and in the future. It was originally free on line at a web site "withoutthehotair", however as of the date of this write up, unfortunately it is no longer available on line. MacKay is a British, so this book is written about the United KIngdom, and not the US. However, all of the basic principals and arguments that he presents can be easily applied to the USA. He starts from the place that we like the life that we live with ample and reasonably priced electricity. He does address the CO2 emission issue, for the global warming crew, so there is hard information to consider. He is not going down the hair shirt route that we all need to cut our energy use by x percent or the world will cook tomorrow. It is so nice to look at a book that deals with real numbers and the world as it is, and that people like living in this world. He looks briefly at the world and history of CO2 emission over the years essentially since before the industrial revolution. He does a wonderful and very comprehensive job of looking at the different proposals for generating energy such as tidal, wave, wind, geothermal, etc. The specifics are tied to the UK, but they can be applied to the USA or any other country as applicable. Tidal could apply to the Bay of Fundy for example in North America. He has a breakout for where all of the energy including the electrical energy goes which is interesting. He breakouts out total energy consumption including air travel. He looks at the energy that is used for housing and different approaches. All of this is preparation for the last section of the book, where you can play king for a day, and devise your own approach to providing the required electrical power fro the UK by selecting the option that you prefer. He includes nuclear as an option. My favorite section is 27, "Five Energy Plans for Britain", where he presents five different options to illustrate the choices that one must make in deciding what options to select among wind, tide, solar, geothermal. nuclear, solar in the desert, hydro, waste etc.

MacKay introduces some - but not enough - realism into the field of renewable energy. As a professor of physics, he does an excellent job of explaining power and the fundamental physical limitations of various technologies. In particular, wind, solar, and biofuels diffuse sources of energy, so MacKay explains the cost of a particular technology in a variety of units, including m2 needed to provide the average person's power demand and the fraction of Great Britain that would need to be devoted to a particular technology to meet total demand. For example, MacKay calculates that covering the windiest 10% of Great Britain with windmills would provide 20 kWh/d, about half the energy we currently expend driving today! This is a necessary rude awakening for many Greens. Some reviews complain that the efficiency of solar panels has improved since the book was written, but they are missing the larger point: There are physical limitations to what is practical. In the ideal world, the online version of this book could be updated with new information from both the author and readers (like Wikipedia). Unfortunately, as an academic and government advisor, MacKay appears to have little practical experience with real systems. I think a sabbatical working with a power distributor or hedge fund investing in alternative energy projects would be valuable. MacKay minimizes the difficulty of meeting variable demand with intermittent renewable power sources. For example, he absurdly equates the difficulty of dealing with unpredictable in wind power output with the difficulty in dealing with the highly predictable daily demand cycle using today's flexible fossil fuel generators (p 189). Given that wind power output varies with the cube of wind speed, a 20% drop in wind speed is a 50% drop in power output. The size of the reserve (currently provided by fossil fuels) needed to meet fluctuations in output depend on forecasting accuracy. If flexible fossil fuel plants are not used, variations in output and demand will need to be met by expensive storage systems, which roughly doubles the cost! Unfortunately, MacKay discusses cost in an isolated chapter, not in the chapters about the technology itself. The cost of photovoltaic electricity is presented in terms of area is the chapter on photovoltaics and the cost in pounds is elsewhere. While MacKay uses clear units for cost in terms of area (10-20 W/m2 or 100-200 m2/person), price is obscure in Table 28.3. We aren't presented with any information about the cost of fossil fuels, including estimates of the "social cost" of carbon. MacKay leaves the reader with the impression that cost is not an important factor when considering how to decarbonize the economy - or whether to decarbonize at all. (Fossil fuel production will peak someday and economic factors will force decarbonization long before complete depletion, but the impetus for decarbonization today is clearly climate change.) Mackay ignores other costs. In Table 20.8, we learn that trains consume only 6 kWh of energy moving one person 100 kilometers, while buses consume 19 kWh doing the same job. However a train requires very expensive tunnels or that contiguous land be dedicated solely for railroad track that is occupied only a small fraction of the day. Buses, cars and other forms of transportation can share the same right of way. Cars and planes consume 68 and 51 kWh doing the same job, but can take one from home to a final destination in far less time and for lower total cost. MacKay is fixated on reporting costs in terms of some useful units (m2 per person), but not other useful units. In reality, many of us and society as a whole can't afford to maintain our current lifestyle using renewable energy. The solution to that problem - conservation - can be found on p228-9: stop flying (save 35 kWh/d), drive at least 50% less (save 20 kWh), change your thermostat setting (20 kWh/d), replace old buildings (35 kWh/d) and even air-drying laundry (0.5 kW/d). Although he doesn't say so explicitly, MacKay would prefer that change be enforced by government edict rather than be driven by a carbon tax and the marketplace. Despite my criticisms, the book (which is also available online for free) is an extremely useful resource.

...because I was so engrossed. First, I want to congratulate MacKay for being all about the numbers. He has his opinions, sure. But, in the end, what really matters with CO2 is boring old arithmetic: How much does it cost? How long will it last? How much energy can be delivered? How much energy can be saved? How much space will it take? More than anything else, he provides us with an intellectual toolkit on how to measure different approaches. Taking the basic raw numbers, such as incoming sunlight and available surface area, multiply them by an efficiency factor. Simple, elegant, powerful. His approach also tells us where OUR own greatest energy use, as individuals, is likely coming from. Which tells us where WE can improve and where we should not bother. Now, I don't agree with everything he says, but the observations below by no mean justify any less than 5 stars: - Nuclear power may not be renewable, but say a 100 year supply of uranium would nicely tidy us over till we found other energy sources. So it shouldn't be dismissed that quickly. - His numerical analysis is relentlessly English in outlook. England's geography imposes a fairly specific set of constraints that would apply differently to other countries. Which he admits - noting for example that the US could make solar energy work in its southwest deserts, as England could not. That's not so much a flaw with the book as, well, a feature. We need another edition for Canada and the US. - I am not always fully convinced by his calculations. For example, he relates fuel consumption in cars to the cube of the speed, IIRC and backs it up with some empirical data. And also links it to the number of stop/starts in city driving. But, one of the most common recommendations we hear to save gas is to accelerate slowly which really does not appear in his calculations. Are we getting the full picture? I think a broader admission of the need for "engineering fudge factors", not just simple predictive equations, would have been welcome. - Costs are not covered much. Seeing as there is only so much money around, the best solution may be the one which is affordable, not just the best that is theoretically possible. Honestly, I am only mentioning these points to highlight how little there is to criticize about this book. Praising it with faint criticism if you wish. If only more of the climate change advocates were as rigorous in their analysis we would have much better much better sets of policy options to choose from. It is one thing to convince people that climate change is happening, another to convince them to take action, potentially at personal cost. If you then mess that up by prescribing insufficiently thought out, dogmatic, solutions that is really a shame. This book is a huge step towards teaching us how to analyze possible solutions critically. Finally, one of his most important points is that we can't _always_ say NO to everything. Most renewables DO take up space and they DO change the environment. My area has had years of impact studies to birds and scenery of offshore wind turbines. Ditto run-of-river hydro objections. What it hasn't had is much new generation capacity.

Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air is a brilliant and entertaining introduction to the Energy Dilemma: We are using so much fossil fuel that we inevitably will cause catastrophe through global warming inside one hundred years, AND we will run out of economic fossil fuel, which is currently a necessity for the way we live, but most countries have no sustainable source of renewable energy. The book is so good because it addresses the fundamental question of "What do I believe" with really simple physics (and yes there are some equations)for the energy we use, and the energy we can generate. Scientists have known for one hundred years that this is the only way we EVER can know about the future, but we still try to use "proofs" using Aristotelian logic when we talk to the media: it doesn't work because it is, literally "illogical" and while arguing from analogy may help you understand,it does not form a basis for KNOWING. David MacKay also moves to "solutions": which are sound enough for addressing the Fossil Fuel Running Out, but getting from "here" time to "there" time will be too late to save the Arctic: for that we need much greater reductions by 2020. Still, those technologies needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 will come straight out of the simple physics and equations so beautifully presented here. When we look back in ten years and ask, what initiated the rapid shift to lightweight commuter vehicles, shorter legs on international flights, and "passive house" acceptance, I think we will source the movement to these simple equations.

I read the free e-book first and liked it so well that I bought the paperback book to get more readable graphs and tables. It is absolutely the most factual and understandable book about sustainable energy that I have come across in 10 years of reading in this area. David MacKay avoids adjectives totally by substituting straightforward conversions of varying types of power into kilowatts and gigawatts and of energy into kilowatt-hours/day. He also calculates the land area required to implement each type of sustainable energy to weed out what he calls "country sized" energy sources. His coverage is unbiased and comprehensive. This is a must-read for anyone that wants to get past sound bites and understand how to replace current fossil fuels -- whether you are worried about global warming or just running out of fossil fuels themselves. Furthermore, his straightforward and entertaining writing style makes it a fun read. One note: The book is written in England from that perspective. Some of the area comparisons are based on parts of England and will require conversion to square miles and states for those of us in the metrically-challenged US. This does not detract at all from the discussions. One small irritation is that he constantly points out the fact that the per-capita energy consumption in Britain is about half of that in the US. This is partly fair due to our love affair with central heating, muscle cars, pickups and SUVs. However, having personally experienced temperatures of +113F (45C) and -30F (-34C) and driven 70+ miles (113 kilometers) between towns in the US west, I think that at least some of the criticism is overdone. A more fair per-capita comparison might be taken from New England in the US, since both are densely-populated areas in northern maritime climates warmed somewhat by the Gulf Stream. In addition, the solution he proposes to replace all transportation with electric vehicles would not work in the spread-out Western US without either radically new battery technology or battery exchanges. Despite these small gripes this is a must-read book for energy literacy, whether you download the free e-book or purchase the book itself.

This book is essential for anyone thinking about energy policy. It excels because MacKay does not espouse one specific solution, but rather teaches the reader how to create solutions and evaluate them. He emphasizes that the numbers must add up -- total energy production must equal total energy consumption. In a way the book is very simple. He leads the reader by the hand in estimating the energy requirements of society - transportation, heat, food, gadgets, and so on. He similarly helps you make credible estimates of achievable production from sources such as sunlight, tides, hydro, nuclear, wind, coal, and oil. Like a good physicist, MacKay is able stand back and estimate these numbers top-down from first principles, with just enough depth to generate numbers that are credible to you and good enough for policy making. The charts, graphs, tables, and pictures are extensive and clear. If you have a particularly loved energy source [wind?] or a particularly hated one [coal?] you can "do the numbers" and build your own energy policy. The only requirement is that the numbers add up!

Great work, from a very talented author! The author sets out the facts and physical basics which enable us to compare energy, from every angle. He very simply describes the facts relating to energy production and use, as well as providing simple ways to calculate and to understand the limits of the various technologies. I am an engineer in the power industry, but I have learned a huge amount from this book through its simplicity. Anyone with even basic education can follow his analysis and the simple mathematics which bring the stories to life. This book will stay at the front of my shelves for years to come. It is truly the work of a genius - a genius who does not rely on complicated argument or mathematics. The author's real genius is his ability to say things simply and to support his statements with simple mathematics and to provide on-line references to everything he says. Truly magnificent!

Uno dei pochi libri su quest’argomento che val la pena di leggere.

Ce livre (en anglais) présente de façon très complète, et remarquablement simple et claire le problème de la consommation d'énergie auquel l'espèce humaine va être confrontée à court terme. Le problème est quantitatif (si on ne chiffre pas sérieusement le problème, on passe son temps à dire tout et n'importe quoi, ce que quantité d'autres livres font abondamment). Il faut donc aligner des chiffres. Mais l'auteur réussit l'exploit de les présenter de façon extraordinairement simple et concrète en les ramenant à une seule personne (vous !), de sorte qu'on la sensation de gérer son propre budget. Toutes les explications sont compréhensibles par tout le monde et il s'agit entre autre d'un ouvrage de vulgarisation remarquable (les détails un peu techniques sont systématiquement mis en appendices, qu'on peut tout à fait omettre mais qui sont accessibles à toute personne se souvenant de ses études scientifiques dans le secondaire). En bref une lecture indispensable pour toute personne voulant vraiment savoir quelle est la situation. Seul défaut: l'auteur examine surtout, pour être très concret, le cas du Royaume Uni, mais la situation de la France est peu différente.

Does what is says on the cover, a clear explanation of how much energy we use, how much renewables might be able to provide and the options for getting off fossil fuels. The figures concentrate on the UK (the writer was a highly regarded professor at Cambridge University) and are a few years old now, so some of the latest figures for wind and solar production and costs are not there, but overall an invaluable book for anyone wanting to get to grips with the facts in this post-truth age.

Schade eigentlich, dass dieses Buch hier bisher keine Rezension erfahren hat. Vielleicht liegt es daran, dass es das Buch (mit ein paar drucktechnischen Einbußen) auch online gibt; es muss lediglich nach 'sustainable energy' oder 'david mackay' gesucht werden. Dennoch gehört dieses Werk als gedrucktes Paperback in jeden Bücherschrank. Und sei es nur als Nachschlagewerk. Es räumt auf mit diversen (fast liebgewonnenen) Vorurteilen in der Klimadebatte; z.B. die 'schlimme' (aber irrelevante) Insektenatmung, der 'tolle' (aber untaugliche) Hybrid-PKW etc. pp. Der Autor David MacKay ist seit letztem Jahr (2009) Berater der britischen Regierung. Insofern hat das Buch einen leichten Touch aus britischer Perspektive; aber nur ganz leicht. Die Aufbereitung von Daten (z.B. der Pro-Kopf-Anteil klimarelevanter Emissionen weltweit, auch historisch kumulativ!) in überzeugenden Grafiken ist beispielhaft und unerreicht! Wie wahrhaftig dreckschleudernd sehen da auf einmal USA oder Deutschland im Vergleich mit den angeblichen Dreckschleudern China oder Indien aus...

It's best book ever to give you an idea of how to effectively use available resources specifically energy.