Asia's Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific

It's ironic that I write this review on the day that the U.S. and the Philippines agrees to a new military alliance, where the U.S. sends rotating troops and navy ships to perform maneuvers and reconnaissance. The U.S. now has similar treaties with Australia and Singapore. I've also been reading recent articles on why the U.S. is making military commitments, to counter China, with Obama stating that "China isn't the focus."This book explains what this situation is all about, the situation of each country on the South China Sea, and why China is so hostile to all this. Note that China is building up their military, not their army, but their navy, and to a slightly lesser degree, their air force.The American press pictures China as the hostile power here, but when you look at it, China feels they have a rightful claim to the South China Sea, just as the U.S. has a claim on the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, and Europe having a claim on the Mediterranean, except that the U.S. does not violate the territorial waters off of other countries in the Gulf or the Caribbean.With China now being a major economic power, and they do do business with India, Africa, and the Middle East,the South China Sea provides major passage between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and, like the United States, China intends to become a two ocean country. This sea also has a lot of valuable natural resources, starting with oil and natural gas, not to mention rich fishing grounds, and China is going to want all that wealth. With a population of 1.3 billion people, they are going to need it.Another little known fact is that China does not go by the Law of the Sea treaty, with a claim 200 miles of the continental shelf off its coast only, with all other international borders respected. China want all of the sea. The U.S., from their point of view, has no right to it because they are a country 7000 miles away, with no claim whatsoever. China, having a history of being colonized, and humiliated by other world powers, in coming into its own, and what they claim, they will have. That's the way they see it. Are they really the villains?Other countries around the sea do see China as a threat, and China's claims are intruding on their own territories on the sea, with Chinese coast guard vessels driving off fishing boats and other vessels, laying claim to small islands other countries also claim (the Spratleys, the Parcels, etc.).Because of this, these countries, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam (yes, Vietnam), Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Australia are all drawing up treaties with the U.S., allowing them to either establish naval bases or at least allow our navy ships to dock at their ports. Many of these countries and also establishing posts of their own in the sea to counteract China.This is where the situations stands today.Robert Kaplan has visited these countries, studied their cultures, and history, and gives a clear understanding of why these countries, and China, have the points of view that they do. In order to stabilize that part of the world, the U.S. Navy, and Air Force, has to be there to protect these countries and allow freedom for their ships, merchant and military, to sail where needed. China needs the freedom to sail on the South China Sea, through the Straits of Malacca, to the Indian Ocean and beyond to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.What is especially interesting is the question on Taiwan. China may want it back, and they are very stubborn about this, but Taiwan's coast is almost impossible for ships to land in invade, and the Taiwanese themselves are armed to the teeth.Vietnam, in spite of our war with them (they call it the American War), has invited the U.S. Navy back to Cam Rahn Bay for ships to dock. They have a sense of superiority because they won the war against us, but that is fading into history.Malaysia is an interesting case because, although Muslim, that also have a Chinese and Indian population, and they all get along quite well.All these countries and cultures are described in great detail, and gives us a point of view that Americans do not have.One reason why this book is accurate because after I have finished reading it, I read in the newspapers how U.S. Air Force reconnaissance planes constantly flies over the South China Sea to spy on the Chinese and test their reaction. It is only a matter of time before the Chinese navy and air forces catches up with us.Also given are scenarios of China should their economy begin to fail. How likely that is remains to be seen.When you read the newspapers about the present situation in the South China Sea, I strongly recommend that you pick up this book for a clear point of view, and how China and Southeast Asia sees it.

I have the hardback, which is 191 pages not including notes and index. Well-written and an easy read. I am familiarizing myself with China and this book is part of that effort. I gave it 4, and not 5, stars only because it was published in 2014. Despite this, I think the information in the book is still quite useful. The author projects a future in which both China and the U.S. have financial and internal political constraints, which seems prescient.First, the book outlines an Indian influence in Vietnam of which I was unaware. The French use of the term “Indochina” was accurate.Next, the US media and intelligentsia may have what the author describes as a humanist dilemma in the South China Sea since there may be no clear moral objective in the competing claims to this area. As you read the media’s reports on this area keep this in mind.The author draws an interesting parallel between China’s 21st century approach to the South China Sea and America’s approach in the 19th century to the Caribbean. One major difference, but similarities exist in the two cases. The major difference is that the South China Sea is much more important to world trade.Vietnam and Malaysia each get their own chapters. Vietnam has a long and sometimes contentious history with China. In the 9 years since the book was published I think Vietnam”s economic importance has only increased. The author observes that Vietnam may have moved on from the Vietnam War better than the U.S. has. I didn’t realize how cobbled together Malaysia was by the British as Britain withdrew from this area.Lee Kuan Yew was the seminal figure in the formation of Singapore. A truly fascinating figure. The author describes him as “The Good Autocrat”. I have put one of Mr. Lee’s books on my reading list.Next the author looks at the Philippines. He doesn’t paint a real hopeful picture. It’s culture seems more South American than Asian. This is perhaps the result of Spanish colonization amplified by the geography being a lot of islands.He spends some time and care reviewing Taiwan and rightly so in my opinion. Taiwan’s defensive position is aided by the “stopping power of water” per John Mearshetmer. Here is where the waning strength of the U.S. Navy will find its greatest challenge.He finishes with an overview of the physical constraints imposed in the South China Sea and a consideration of possible changes in policy created by economic and political changes in the U.S. and China. He leans on input from Australian authorities in this analysis. There’s a short Epilogue that I speculate was included to say something about Indonesia.If the subject interests you, I highly recommend the book.

Kaplan's latest exploration of geopolitics is excellent. I miss his more fascinating stories of his travels in cultural references, but they are not as relevant to the theme in this one. It's all about all those little islands in the South China Sea, and what they might mean as China takes control of its "Caribbean." This volatile region is a tipping point in the balance of power between China and the US, and Kaplan gives us an excellent perspective of how each of the key countries surrounding this "Chinese lake" view their stake and strategies in the game as the importance of China's naval power develops. The South China Sea is synonymous with skullduggery and intrigue, and nothing much has changed since Terry and the Pirates. What many don't realize is how important this region is in the global scheme of things, and the fact that a humungous proportion of the worlds trade and energy supplies pass through the Malacca Straits - nearly 40% of the world's trade; 90% of Japan's total imports; and, 80% of China's crude oil supplies. It figures that the stakes here are enormous as the Straits and the South China Sea are the key links between the Indian Ocean and the Far East. The small island groups are significant in their own right as potential resources in oil and gas. Vietnam emerges as a power beyond its apparent size , which shouldn't surprise Americans. After all, they won the war with the US, and managed to beat back China's incursions. The apparent poverty of the Philippines; the masterful leadership of Mahathir in Malaysia; the dilemma of Taiwan; all play a part in this drama. Thought provoking, and a wake up call for those who don't realize how important this region is to the global balance of power.

Engaging and informative

O autor combina análises frias de geopolítica com o relato de impressões pessoais dos países em questão. O resultado é uma leitura agradável que não perde a objetividade. A parte analistas não tem nada de pesada, e os relatos são fluidos e atraentes, sem exageros e afetações. Livro excelente

I enjoyed the background & historical info of all the countries surrounding the South China Sea. These countries all have their own historical claims and rights in the South China Sea, which results in a very complex situation requiring respect for the rule of international law. I now have a much better understanding of the issues facing this region, which may be the world's #1 potential conflict hot spot in the future. The book presented a great overview of the players and issues involved, reminding the reader that this is just as much about Great Power as well as regional politics. I kept Google Earth open while reading for helpful visual reference.

This is the most informative book on South China Sea I have seen. It is written in an easy language, with a couple of explanatory maps, and the detailed chapters on each and every country deal with specific historical and political issues the country has to face. For example, how different problems for Taiwan and Vietnam are, and how different the dynamics of their relation with China is.

Like Kaplan's other books, Asia's Cauldron is a carefully thought out work based on extensive research with a compelling central idea. The country-per-chapter layout makes the geography easy to follow and helps tell a clear story of emerging tensions across the Asia-Pacific region. While the central idea gives some cause for concern, Kaplan is even-handed and optimistic that serious conflict isn't inevitable. Criticisms that he writes from an American perspective strike this reader as misleading. The story is based on many interviews with experts and officials of countries in the region as well as crediting the insights of other authors, highlighting Hugh White's "Power Shift" for example. Kaplan's books demand attention to be fully appreciated so while not a bed-time read, they're well worth the effort.